Jochen Bischoff, Head of Global Business Solutions, Africa – TikTok
Uncertainty has become a defining feature of modern marketing. Across the Middle East, Africa, and Turkey, consumer behaviour is shifting rapidly, digital channels are multiplying, and economic pressures are intensifying. Yet many marketers continue to rely on outdated measurement models that were built for a simpler, more linear world.
According to research by TikTok and WARC, The Certainty of Uncertainty: Why Marketing Needs a New Measurement Mindset, this reliance is creating a paradox. The more marketers cling to easily measurable metrics such as clicks or last-touch attribution, the more disconnected they become from actual business outcomes.
With global digital advertising spend reaching $741 billion in 2024, the risks of misattribution and inefficient investment are significant.
Consumer discovery in South Africa: a new reality
South Africa illustrates the pace of change. As digital adoption accelerates, consumers are no longer following predictable paths to purchase. Instead, discovery and inspiration are driving decisions:
- 93% of South African consumers use video platforms to search for products before making a purchase.
- 88% say they discover new brands or products through video that they had not seen before.
These behaviours reflect a departure from linear, funnel-based models. Traditional lower-funnel tactics alone cannot capture the full picture of how people explore, evaluate, and choose brands.
The limits of traditional attribution
The TikTok–WARC study shows that outdated attribution models are not only incomplete but often misleading. Key findings include:
- 60% of underperforming marketers remain overly focused on lower-funnel conversion.
- 35% of last-click attribution spend generates zero incremental sales.
- In some cases, up to 79% of conversions are missed entirely by traditional models.
These gaps highlight how over-reliance on lower-funnel metrics leads to over-investment in performance marketing at the expense of long-term brand-building. This imbalance risks undermining growth, especially in markets undergoing rapid transformation.
The pressure to do more with less
Marketers in South Africa and across the region are being asked to deliver on two fronts simultaneously: to show immediate results while also building long-term brand equity. Budgets are often tight, and teams must demonstrate impact across both horizons.
In this environment, measurement systems need to be adaptable rather than absolute. Rigid models built for static conditions can’t capture the fluid reality of modern marketing. To thrive, marketers must adopt approaches that balance short-term performance with long-term brand growth, frameworks that reflect the complexity of today’s consumer journey rather than forcing it into oversimplified funnels.
Adaptability, not precision, is becoming the defining characteristic of effective measurement.
Shifting to a new measurement mindset
The research points to a clear need for a new approach: one that moves away from chasing the illusion of absolute precision and instead builds systems capable of responding to complexity. Three shifts are particularly important:
- From rigid metrics to adaptable systems: Measurement must reflect the fluid reality of consumer behaviour rather than rely on narrow indicators of performance.
- From short-term conversions to balanced outcomes: Lower-funnel performance remains important, but it should be complemented by investment in brand equity and discovery-driven growth.
- From isolated signals to integrated insights: Consumers do not separate inspiration from purchase. Measurement must connect the dots between content, commerce and consumer intent.
The GRO framework: a practical response
To help marketers manage this transition, the TikTok–WARC research introduces the GRO framework, designed to provide structure without oversimplifying complexity. It is built on three stages:
- Goals: align teams around shared business outcomes, not just channel-specific KPIs.
- Readiness: assess internal tools, processes, and capabilities to ensure the organisation is prepared for change.
- Optimisation: continuously refine and adapt systems to reflect consumer behaviour, rather than treating measurement as a static process.
This framework equips marketers to make smarter, faster decisions without being overwhelmed by ambiguity.
Finding resilience in uncertainty
Uncertainty is not going away. Rapid technological change, economic volatility, and rising expectations from consumers mean the marketing environment will remain complex. But this does not have to be a disadvantage.
The TikTok–WARC findings highlight a sense of cautious optimism: for marketers willing to evolve, uncertainty can be an opportunity. By embracing adaptability, marketers can reconnect discovery with conversion, creativity with commerce, and short-term outcomes with long-term growth.
The way forward
The evidence is clear. Outdated attribution models no longer provide the clarity marketers need. In fact, they often obscure the signals that matter most. To succeed, marketers must adopt a new measurement mindset, one that is outcome-driven, adaptable, and reflective of real consumer behaviour.
As the study shows, certainty may be out of reach, but adaptability is not. And in today’s environment, adaptability is what will separate those who merely survive from those who thrive.
